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Atlas of Habitable WorldsSolar System habitability observatory
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HABITABLE WORLDS 3.1 / RUST MODEL

Life-search scenario laboratory

Compare conditional environmental suitability, inspect claim-level evidence and uncertainty, and test mission or research priorities. Every result remains conditional on visible assumptions.

00 / PROFILE MATRIX

Comparative world profiles

Six-dimensional comparison profile

Comparative profile · no probability claim
Select up to six worlds
Analytical emphasis · not physical change
Liquid water100
Energy source100
Organic chemistry100
Environmental stability100
Evidence maturity100
Mission access100
Calibrated evidence update
Sensitivity85
Specificity95
Explicit prior for this claim50
Positive calibration trials100
Negative calibration trials100

The profile stays unchanged. The default output is a Bayes factor; a posterior appears only under the visible prior.

Set the calibration assumptions and run the update.

Six-dimensional comparison profile
MODEL OUTPUTS / FOUR SEPARATE READINGS

Four results—not one life score

Each result answers a different question and must retain its own assumptions, scale and uncertainty.

01Conditional environmental suitabilityThe liquid-water, energy, chemistry and stability axes form an environmental sub-profile interpreted only under the stated environment and life model. It is not a probability or a universal habitability score.
02Evidence stateClaim-specific LR/BF, dependency audit and sensitivity to an explicit prior. It is not converted into a global evidence-quality score.
03UncertaintyCalibration intervals, prior sensitivity, eligibility probability, rank-one frequency and rank stability remain visible. More ensemble runs do not remove model uncertainty.
04Mission / research priorityConditional opportunity only among targets that pass hard evidence-maturity and mission-feasibility floors. It is neither a probability of life nor a fixed universal ranking.
DECISION MODEL / ENSEMBLE + HARD FLOORS

Opportunity weights and eligibility floors

A target must pass both floors. Scores cannot compensate for a failed floor.

Opportunity = weighted mean(H,D,K,I-proxy) · Eligible = E ≥ Eₘᵢₙ AND M ≥ Mₘᵢₙ
  1. 01Opportunity uses visible H/D/K/I-proxy weights. Evidence and mission floors are true AND eligibility rules. Monte Carlo reports intervals, eligibility, rank-one frequency, rank stability and Pareto status.
  2. 02Information value is a proxy until an experiment and outcome distribution define entropy-based EIG. No result is a universal life score, mission cost, or scientific consensus.

Profile scores are comparative editorial inputs, not physical ratio scales or probabilities. The ranking is a conditional decision aid, not a probability of life.

01

Opportunity weights and eligibility floors

Opportunity weights
Habitability importance50
Detectability importance50
Knowledge-gap importance50
Information-value proxy importance50
Non-compensatory eligibility floors
Evidence maturity floor50
Mission feasibility floor50

A target must pass both floors. Scores cannot compensate for a failed floor.

02

Extraterrestrial target ranking

Adjust the scenario and run the model.

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    METHODOLOGY / MODEL CONTRACT

    What is calculated—and what is not

    The laboratory keeps comparative profiles, evidence inference and mission decisions in separate mathematical layers.

    01

    Comparative baseline

    The six 0–100 values are versioned editorial comparison inputs. They are neither physical quantities nor prior probabilities; source distributions supersede them whenever available.

    02

    Analytical lens

    The lens changes only visual emphasis. It never treats an ordinal score as a physical ratio and never propagates a universal causal formula across unlike worlds.

    03

    Evidence update

    For a predeclared binary test, Rust computes LR+ or LR− from sensitivity and specificity. Beta calibration ensembles produce a Bayes-factor interval. Shared evidence chains are not counted twice.

    04

    Visible priors

    The default output is the Bayes factor. A conditional posterior is shown only for the explicit prior, alongside a full prior-sensitivity curve; the profile itself remains unchanged.

    05

    Decision ensemble

    Opportunity uses visible H/D/K/I-proxy weights. Evidence and mission floors are true AND eligibility rules. Monte Carlo reports intervals, eligibility, rank-one frequency, rank stability and Pareto status.

    06

    Interpretation boundary

    Information value is a proxy until an experiment and outcome distribution define entropy-based EIG. No result is a universal life score, mission cost, or scientific consensus.